Is the recession really over?  It sounds like a question worth asking.  However, Fed Chairman Bernanke told a conference at the Brookings Institution on September 15^th that "From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point, but it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time."

So, maybe a better question should focus on what “technical perspective” really means?  Mr. Bernanke acknowledging that economic forecasting "is not one of your most precise sciences," and then said most forecasters think economic growth in 2010 will be moderate because of "ongoing headwinds," including financial and credit problems, sectoral adjustments in the economy, the desire of families to pay off debt and the need for the federal government to restrain spending.

So, perhaps even a better question would revolve around “economic indicators” that we can plainly see and will prove this recession is over from a practical, not technical, perspective.

Here are my thoughts…

Starbucks has done a very good job holding their prices, now if we begin to see lines form that will be a sign the recession is coming to a close.  I met a friend yesterday at 3:45 and there were 7 people in line before us.

Morton’s has been sending $99 coupons for a great meal for two.  I’ve received two in the past year (used one).  When those stop showing up in my mailbox that will be an indicator.

I never know how to react to a contractor who returns phone calls and shows up on time.  It is surprising, refreshing and concerning all at the same time.  When we start getting overcharged for poorly service, we’ll know the recession is over.

My donut eating friends think Dunkin’s has been cutting back on the crème in their Boston Crème donuts…Is nothing sacred when times are tough?

Excited, hostile crowds waiting in the dark the day after Thanksgiving will be a strong indicator...

If every seat if full on your next flight, particularly over the holidays, we’ll be on our way.

Believe it or not, cardboard boxes are an indicator.  Most things you purchase or use are put into a cardboard box.  Mr Greenspan use boxes as one of his favorite leading indicators.

I know there are other visual indicators the worst recession in a generation is finally over.  I've offered 7 here... What are the most unusual indicators you see?