If your team faces a vexing problem, avoid resorting to the SWAG (Scientific Wild-A-Guess) technique. Even the best guesses may prove wrong and costly.
Take a more systematic approach: Examine cause-effect relationships methodically by involving a team of experts who possess wide-ranging, complementary strengths. Use their analysis to list and then test possible fixes. Only invest in long-term solutions when you’ve completed a successful pilot after defining the problem and inviting your best minds to chime in.